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Jacek K., Nanna Mercer
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Last Activity November 22, 2009 11:23 PM

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You can't put something down until you've picked it up. You can't put tears behind you until you've wept them. You can't let go of the past until you've grieved for it.Barbara Sher in her book "I could do anything if only I knew what it was"
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Posted:
November 16, 2009 5:24 AM
Post #189532—in reply to #189445
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

If someone is still wondering where that burst bubble money went, it's not exactly true that it was only money that existed in the form of electronic entries that were adjusted accordingly, on paper.

This WSJ article's title is "How You Can Make $20 Billion." In other words, next time let's not be stupid and let's all of us make $20 billion each. Here is how:

Even as the financial system collapsed last year, and millions of investors lost billions of dollars, one unlikely investor was racking up historic profits: John Paulson, a hedge-fund manager in New York.

His firm made $20 billion between 2007 and early 2009 by betting against the housing market and big financial companies. Mr. Paulson's personal cut would amount to nearly $4 billion, or more than $10 million a day. ...

How did he do it? Believing that a housing-market collapse was coming, Mr. Paulson spent over $1 billion in 2006 to buy insurance on what he then saw as risky mortgage investments. When the housing market cracked and the mortgages tumbled, the value of Mr. Paulson's insurance soared. One of his funds rose more than 500% that year. Then in 2008, he shorted financial shares, or wagered that they would fall in price, profiting again when these companies collapsed.

And are there any investing skills that average investors can learn from his success? Yes. There are no guarantees, of course, but the success of Mr. Paulson and a few other underdog investors lends encouragement to individuals trying to compete with Wall Street's pros.

Here are eight investing lessons of Mr. Paulson's $20 billion gamble, the greatest trade in financial history: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125823321386948789.html

Happy Christmas stock buying!

Jacek


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Posted:
November 16, 2009 6:19 AM
Post #189537—in reply to #189532
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

America’s mainstream religious denominations used to teach the faithful that they would be rewarded in the afterlife. But over the past generation, a different strain of Christian faith has proliferated—one that promises to make believers rich in the here and now. Known as the prosperity gospel, and claiming tens of millions of adherents, it fosters risk-taking and intense material optimism. It pumped air into the housing bubble. And one year into the worst downturn since the Depression, it’s still going strong.

Did Christianity Cause the Crash?

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200912/rosin-prosperity-gospel

* * *

The following article was published in 1999:

The Market as God

Harvey Cox is a professor of divinity at Harvard University.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/199903/market-god



[Edited by Jacek K. on November 16, 2009 6:22 AM]

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Posted:
November 16, 2009 11:56 AM
Post #189579—in reply to #189537
Scott Rasmussen
Mother tongue: English
Joined: April 28, 2004
Location: United States
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

Originally written by Jacek K. on November 16, 2009 6:19 AM

Did Christianity Cause the Crash?

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200912/rosin-prosperity-gospel

* * *

 

 

 

 

Nice:

A few pages later comes the corrective, the model of a "victor" and not a "victim."  Osteen and his wife, Victoria, are walking around their neighborhood in Houston when they pass a beautiful house being built.  "Most of the other homes around us were one-story, ranch-style homes that were forty to fifty years old, but this house was a large two-story home, with high ceilings and oversized windows," he writes.  "It was a lovely, inspiring place."

Fortunately for the Osteens, they learned that this was the house that Ken Lay had leased to Andrew Fastow.  They came to a renewed appreciation for all that they had, and thereafter refrained from dividing people into "producers" and "parasites."  Victoria later reflected to Joel: "In our wish to keep up with the Joneses, we very nearly succumbed to the sin of pride."

The End.



[Edited by Scott Rasmussen on November 16, 2009 12:00 PM]

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Posted:
November 16, 2009 12:05 PM
Post #189582—in reply to #189579
John Bunch
Expert
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Mother tongue: English
Posts: 1807
Joined: February 1, 2008
Location: United States
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis
One really sees this phenomenon here in Dallas: the houses built 50 years ago are modest. The one built since 1990 are pretentious and all about big ego. It is really very revealing to see. The "McMansions" really shout "Credit Bubble".
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Posted:
November 19, 2009 6:15 AM
Post #189779—in reply to #189582
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

Crisis? What crisis?

The great jobs-stocks disconnect

The stock market is getting stronger because unemployment is getting worse

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Posted:
November 19, 2009 2:56 PM
Post #189821—in reply to #189779
John Bunch
Expert
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Mother tongue: English
Posts: 1807
Joined: February 1, 2008
Location: United States
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis
Um... Obama refuses to touch the corporate tax rate, which at 35 % for the U.S., is the highest in the world, higher than in France or Germany. And that is one main reason why jobs are not being created in America (the added taxes from "health care reform" will probably add to that).
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Posted:
November 19, 2009 3:37 PM
Post #189823—in reply to #189779
Derek Thornton
TC Master
Mother tongue: English
Joined: April 30, 2007
Location: Germany
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

Originally written by Jacek K. on November 19, 2009 12:15 PM
Crisis? What crisis?  "The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs. And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise." 

The people who I listen to are saying today that nobody has yet worked out why the market goes up when the US dollar goes down but the market does not come down again when the US dollar rises.

Is it behaving like a ratchet, or like somebody blowing up a balloon?

There was also some ruminating today about the rise in leverage. Everybody appeared to agree after the Financial Crisis hit that the price of buying a company should not exceed 3 times its annual earnings (leverage).

The cost of buying companies has recently crept up to be now well over 5 times their annual earnings. That does not look good, folks - here we go again!

Derek 



[Edited by Derek Thornton on November 19, 2009 3:47 PM]

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Posted:
November 19, 2009 4:44 PM
Post #189824—in reply to #189821
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis

Originally written by John Bunch on November 19, 2009 8:56 PM

And that is one main reason why jobs are not being created in America 

But we don't want jobs to be created, because then the stock market will crash for sure...


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Posted:
November 21, 2009 9:29 AM
Post #189932—in reply to #189824
John Bunch
Expert
1000500100100100
Mother tongue: English
Posts: 1807
Joined: February 1, 2008
Location: United States
 
RE: Understanding the Financial Crisis
I don't understand the connection there. When the stock market was at its peak in the U.S. in the 1990s, unemployment was lower about 3 % or less. In Japan during the peak of the stockmarket in 1989, unemployment was almost non-existent. Sorry to burst the "bubble" there, but those are not connected in the way you want them to be. Stockmarkets often peak when unemployment is lowest. The 1970s in the U.S. was the low-point in recent history of the stockmarket price, and unemployment was very high.
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