Will Early Voting Skew Exit Polls?

No.

Recent research in neuroscience and psychology, however, suggests that most undecided voters may be smarter than you think. They’re not indifferent or unable to make clear comparisons between the candidates. They may be more willing than others to take their time — or else just unaware that they have essentially already made a choice: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28wang.html?em

Early vote is closing today in parts of the US so it’s time to make an announcement about TC US translators’ preferences.

First, by comparing United States Presidential Election, 2008 with US election 2004 I note a 38% increase of international interest in the US presidential election at TC.

Second, if we assume that the size of the TC international community interested in this topic is defined by the United States Presidential Election, 2008 poll, in which 76 votes have been cast so far, and we know that the US-based members account for 16% of the entire TC membership, as many as 17 votes cast in this poll here are quite a turnout. (I assume that everybody has identified themselves properly when coming to this TC polling station…)

Of all the US voters participating here, 12% abstained, which means an 88% voting turnout. Recalculating the automatic percentages so that the results refer only to those who have voted for a candidate, we get the following as at the end of the early voting in the US:

- John McCain: 20% 

- Barack Obama: 73%

- Third party/Independent: 7%

If you want to compare this to a vote based on larger numbers (although equally unscientific), a few posts above we find the following results: 

At this moment of the campaign, who will you vote for in the 2008 presidential election? 

John McCain (38490 responses)

    37.3%

 

Barack Obama (64774 responses)

          62.7%

103264 total responses (Results not scientific) 

This early vote at TC for US citizens continues until Tuesday when it will become an entry/exit poll for another day or two.

 

 

Current results

- John McCain: 19% 

- Barack Obama: 75%

- Third party/Independent: 6%

'I Would Make A Bad President,' Obama Says In Huge Campaign Blunder

(Otherwise, the voting results remain unchanged)

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9:03 a.m. Steven Spring of Charlotte, NC voted for Obama due to the fact that he could never support a candidate whose last name rhymes with "Hussein"

Well done!