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Affairs that depend on many people rarely succeedFrancesco Guicciardini
Page: 1 2
Balik Sumagot
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2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Early voting in North Carolina started yesterday; it's one of 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) that allow voters to cast ballots in person ahead of time without providing election officials with a reason they can't be there on Election Day. Which means that as both presidential campaigns shift from registering voters to getting out the vote, the election has actually already started. As much as 30 percent of the votes cast this fall will probably come in before Nov. 4 (http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/17/early_vote/index.html?source=newsletter)

With some of the absentee ballots also safely in the mail, I am now tempted to start polling the actual U.S. voters who work as translators/interpreters. If you live overseas and have already mailed your ballot, or you have already cast you ballot in the early procedure mentioned above, or you are 100% sure for whom you are going to vote no matter what, or you are reading this when about to enter the polling station or after you have voted on November 4, please tell us your actual choice.

This poll is different from the international sentiment expressed in the United States Presidential Election, 2008 poll and the general international preferences expressed in the RE: US election 2008 poll, originally run four years ago, in that it is limited to U.S. citizens only.

Option Votes
 
 
 
 

Posted:
October 28, 2008 4:49 PM
Post #159728—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Compare current TC results (I will announce them when the early voting closes in the US) to this poll: http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/la-votemap,0,6124938.htmlstory

Vote: Election 2008

<form action=/news/local/politics/ny-election2008-poll,0,4962808,post.poll method=post>

At this moment of the campaign, who will you vote for in the 2008 presidential election?

<script language=Java­Script src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/trb.newsday/news/local/politics;ptype=s;slug=la-votemap;rg=ur;ref=googlecom;pos=1;sz=300x250;tile=6;ord=50290904?" type=text/Java­Script><script language=Java­Script id=ew1019269_wrapper src="http://cdn1.eyewonder.com/200125/755429/1019269/wrapper.js" type=text/Java­Script><script language=Java­Script src="http://cdn1.eyewonder.com/200125/755429/1019269/bannerInc.js" type=text/Java­Script>


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Posted:
October 29, 2008 1:36 PM
Post #159833—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens
Originally written by Jacek Krankowski on October 28, 2008 10:49 PM

....current TC results (I will announce them when the early voting closes in the US) ....<script language=Java­Script src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/trb.newsday/news/local/politics;ptype=s;slug=la-votemap;rg=ur;ref=googlecom;pos=1;sz=300x250;tile=6;ord=50290904?" type=text/Java­Script>

That will be on Sunday as Florida's Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has decided to extend early voting hours in his state (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/obama-camp-giddy-over-ear_n_138656.html)



[Edited by Jacek K. on October 29, 2008 1:37 PM]

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Posted:
October 30, 2008 1:25 PM
Post #159907—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Will Early Voting Skew Exit Polls?

No.


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Posted:
October 31, 2008 1:38 PM
Post #160034—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Recent research in neuroscience and psychology, however, suggests that most undecided voters may be smarter than you think. They’re not indifferent or unable to make clear comparisons between the candidates. They may be more willing than others to take their time or else just unaware that they have essentially already made a choice: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28wang.html?em


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Posted:
November 1, 2008 2:54 PM
Post #160135—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Don't Let the Polls Affect Your Vote

They were wrong in 2000 and 2004.

Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.


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Posted:
November 2, 2008 9:18 AM
Post #160176—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Early vote is closing today in parts of the US so it’s time to make an announcement about TC US translators’ preferences.

First, by comparing United States Presidential Election, 2008 with US election 2004 I note a 38% increase of international interest in the US presidential election at TC.

Second, if we assume that the size of the TC international community interested in this topic is defined by the United States Presidential Election, 2008 poll, in which 76 votes have been cast so far, and we know that the US-based members account for 16% of the entire TC membership, as many as 17 votes cast in this poll here are quite a turnout. (I assume that everybody has identified themselves properly when coming to this TC polling station…)

 

Of all the US voters participating here, 12% abstained, which means an 88% voting turnout. Recalculating the automatic percentages so that the results refer only to those who have voted for a candidate, we get the following as at the end of the early voting in the US:

 

- John McCain: 20% 

- Barack Obama: 73%

- Third party/Independent: 7%

 

If you want to compare this to a vote based on larger numbers (although equally unscientific), a few posts above we find the following results: 

At this moment of the campaign, who will you vote for in the 2008 presidential election? 

John McCain (38490 responses)

    37.3%

 

Barack Obama (64774 responses)

          62.7%


103264 total responses (Results not scientific)
 

This early vote at TC for US citizens continues until Tuesday when it will become an entry/exit poll for another day or two.

“You’ll love it! It’s computer-driven but people-enhanced.” by Bernard Schoenbaum
 
 

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Posted:
November 3, 2008 12:42 PM
Post #160306—in reply to #160176
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Current results

 

- John McCain: 19% 

- Barack Obama: 75%

- Third party/Independent: 6%

 


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Posted:
November 4, 2008 12:00 PM
Post #160410—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

'I Would Make A Bad President,' Obama Says In Huge Campaign Blunder

(Otherwise, the voting results remain unchanged)


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Posted:
November 4, 2008 2:45 PM
Post #160436—in reply to #160410
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Home | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

9:03 a.m. Steven Spring of Charlotte, NC voted for Obama due to the fact that he could never support a candidate whose last name rhymes with "Hussein"


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Posted:
November 5, 2008 2:25 PM
Post #160597—in reply to #158698
Jacek K.
TC Master
Mother tongue: Polish
Joined: February 18, 2003
Location: Poland
 
RE: 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens

Well done!

More than the statistical 16% of those interested showed up on this poll and cast their ballots.

Here is how our percentages compare with the public at large:

 

US popular vote (est.)

US TC voters

Barack Obama

52%

75%

John McCain

46%

19%

Thank you all!

As for the turnout, 11% of those interested here abstained.

In the US, in 2004, 64% of voting-age citizens cast a ballot, up from 60% in 2000. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/17/uselections2008-johnmccain2)

When 120 million Americans voted in the 2004 presidential election it set a record as the largest voter turnout in U.S. history. By early accounts, the turnout in 2008 will be ever larger, although it may take days to determine if this is the case. (http://www.emportal.co.yu/en/news/region/68250.html)

With 98% of precincts reporting, 120.5 million Americans have voted as of today. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23907597)

Jacek



[Edited by Jacek K. on November 6, 2008 4:22 AM]

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