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United States Presidential Election, 2008

Whether or not you are a US resident, who do you think will win the upcoming US presidential election and why?

 

 

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Posted:
November 24, 2008 11:02 AM
Post #162888—in reply to #162872
Derek Thornton
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts

Originally written by D. T. on November 24, 2008 2:58 PM
True, there is no real clear, longterm trend. In the short-term, at least according to the below, there is a decline.

OK, but all that demonstrates is that there is a decline in the number of arrests at the border. I could deduce from that perhaps that the illegal immigrants are getting smarter or that they are now crossing at places at which it is more difficult to make arrests or that the border guards might now be more susceptible to turning a blind eye or letting themselves be bribed. But if we accept the Roman Empire model then historically it is just when the decline sets in that illegal immigration increases dramatically. On that basis, the worse things get with the US economy, the greater the longterm probability will be that the barbarian hordes come pouring in, especially when you have an immigration-soft president. 

Here is Barack Obama's record on immigration:

  • Encourage every student to learn a second language. (Feb 2008)
  • Need to look at different aspects of immigration reform. (Feb 2008)
  • Have border patrolled, surveillance, and deploy technology. (Feb 2008)
  • Increasing the legal fees on immigrants is not helping. (Feb 2008)
  • Deporting 12 million people is ridiculous and impractical. (Feb 2008)
  • Immigration raids are ineffective. (Feb 2008)
  • Solve the driver's license issue with immigration reform. (Jan 2008)
  • Immigrants are scapegoats for high unemployment rates. (Jan 2008)
  • Support the DREAM Act for the children of illegal immigrants. (Jan 2008)
  • Health plan: not enough resources for illegal immigrants. (Jan 2008)
  • Illegals shouldn't work; but should have path to citizenship. (Dec 2007)
  • Don't deputize Americans to turn in illegal immigrants. (Dec 2007)
  • OK to provide government services in Spanish. (Dec 2007)
  • Comprehensive solution includes employers & borders. (Nov 2007)
  • Undocumented workers come here to work, not to drive. (Nov 2007)
  • Support granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. (Nov 2007)
  • FactCheck: Lightning IS likelier than employer prosecution. (Nov 2007)
  • Illegal immigrants' lack of ID is a public safety concern. (Oct 2007)
  • Immigration system is broken for legal immigrants. (Sep 2007)
  • Reform must include more border security, and border wall. (Sep 2007)
  • Sanctuary cities show that feds are not enforcing law. (Sep 2007)
  • Pathway to citizenship, but people have to earn it. (Aug 2007)
  • Let's be a nation of laws AND a nation of immigrants. (Aug 2007)
  • Do a better job patrolling the Canadian and Mexican borders. (Jun 2007)
  • Give immigrants who are here a rigorous path to citizenship. (Jun 2007)
  • Extend welfare and Medicaid to immigrants. (Jul 1998)
  • Voted YES on continuing federal funds for declared "sanctuary cities". (Mar 2008)
  • Voted YES on comprehensive immigration reform. (Jun 2007)
  • Voted NO on declaring English as the official language of the US government. (Jun 2007)
  • Voted YES on building a fence along the Mexican border. (Sep 2006)
  • Voted YES on establishing a Guest Worker program. (May 2006)
  • Voted YES on allowing illegal aliens to participate in Social Security. (May 2006)
  • Voted YES on giving Guest Workers a path to citizenship. (May 2006)
  • Comprehensive immigration reform without amnesty. (May 2005)
  • Sponsored bill paying fair prevailing wage to guest workers. (May 2006)
  • Provide funding for social services for noncitizens. (May 2006)
  • Rated 8% by USBC, indicating an open-border stance. (Dec 2006)

Full quotes at http://www.ontheissues.org/International/Barack_Obama_Immigration.htm 

Derek


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Posted:
November 24, 2008 12:03 PM
Post #162900—in reply to #162888
John Bunch
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts
I have very mixed feelings about immigration, and I don't think that there is one "right" answer. I think it really depends who you are and what your interests are. For instance, if I own a restaurant in Texas or Arizona, I like immigration, even illegal immigration. If I am a policeman there, maybe not so much. I feel personally that most immigrants work hard and are not a problem. On the other hand, there are many who do engage in crime.

I feel that it will be hard for Obama to reconcile open borders (assuming he wants that) with "free", universal health care. It seems to me that this is like saying to Latin America: "come on in when you get sick". I am not sure how that would work, economically.

It is also a fact that one of the things that put Obama and the Democrats over the top in states like Florida and Virginia and Nevada and Colorado are Hispanics. So I doubt that in the near-term, there will be an incentive for the Democrats to cut down on immigration, if Hispanics are voting Democrat. I think that the Democrats will want to "import" more voters next time too and then try to get them into as many federal programs as possible, to create a dependent group that is then beholden to the Democratic Party. To me, that is a problem.

On the other hand, Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and as the recent gay marriage vote in California showed, they often vote conservative on social issues (in California, the gay marriage initiative to ban same-sex marriage went through and passed, mostly because many African-Americans and Hispanics voting against gay marriage and for "traditional marriage"). So they are less of a "lock" than the Democrats think. And as soon as people begin to rise economically and start their own business, they then tend to vote Republican.

[Edited by John Bunch on November 24, 2008 12:05 PM]

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Posted:
November 24, 2008 12:28 PM
Post #162908—in reply to #162900
Jacek K.
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts

Originally written by John Bunch on November 24, 2008 6:03 PM
it will be hard for Obama to reconcile open borders (assuming he wants that) ...

I have not seen over the last decades a single country of the world that would have open borders. Even within the no-border Schengen area in Europe there are still restrictions on the movement of EU citizens. (That is they are free to travel with no passport controls but they are not completely free to settle and work wherever they want in other EU member states.) Some countries are, of course, much more open than others and will cut the immigration red tape down to the minimum to populate their vast, scarcely populated, land, or perform brain drain in strictly selected professions, or attract investors, but this is never about really "open borders." So why even raise such a specter in the case of Obama? He can loosen up imigration laws a little bit (the amnesty is a separate issue), but never "open the borders."

Jacek


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Posted:
November 24, 2008 3:29 PM
Post #162923—in reply to #162908
Derek Thornton
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts

Originally written by Jacek Krankowski on November 24, 2008 5:28 PM
I have not seen over the last decades a single country of the world that would have open borders. Even within the no-border Schengen area in Europe there are still restrictions on the movement of EU citizens. (That is they are free to travel with no passport controls but they are not completely free to settle and work wherever they want in other EU member states.)

You might well be right but please tell me which EU member state, apart from new members during the transition period, would restrict my right to settle and work there! I cannot think of one. No EU member state can demand that EU citizens have a work permit or residence permit within their state. The freedom to travel without passport controls within the EU does not apply only to EU citizens but to everybody. Entering and leaving the EU we have to present a passport just like everybody else.

Originally written by Jacek Krankowski on November 24, 2008 5:28 PM
So why even raise such a specter in the case of Obama? He can loosen up immigration laws a little bit (the amnesty is a separate issue), but never "open the borders."

There is no good reason why he should not have specters raised - for a start, according to the news reports most of those appointed to high positions in his government are "his friends". Isn't that what people used to complain about with Saddam Hussein and Robert Mugabe - filling all the top jobs with their "friends"? They also all happen to be long-time members of the "establishment". Where is the CHANGE in that? All we need now is for him to start spending money he does not have and finding out that all he can do in Iraq is to adopt the Malaki/Bush timetable. ...

Derek
 


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Posted:
November 24, 2008 4:29 PM
Post #162926—in reply to #162923
Jacek K.
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts
Originally written by Derek Thornton on November 24, 2008 9:29 PM

which EU member state, apart from new members during the transition period, would restrict my right to settle and work there

You have obviously answered your own question there. My version of it would be: Which EU member state, apart from old members during the transition period, would restrict my right to settle and work there?

Originally written by Jacek Krankowski on November 24, 2008 5:28 PM
He can loosen up immigration laws a little bit (the amnesty is a separate issue), but never "open the borders."

There is no good reason why he should not have specters raised - for a start, according to the news reports most of those appointed to high positions in his government are "his friends". 

I see no connection between our two statements. Besides, yours is nothing new. Show me one head of state/government who does not surround himself with friends, i.e., people he thinks he can trust.

Jacek


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Posted:
December 1, 2008 11:31 AM
Post #163433—in reply to #154551
Raymond Anthony
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RE: United States Presidential Election, 2008
In spite of the question for the forum poll, it would have been good (though it appears with the possible exception of John you all voted for the winner) to know who, the people -the forum posters- voted for, where and why.

This is a major elephant in the room!


[Edited by Raymond Anthony on December 1, 2008 11:36 AM]

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Posted:
December 1, 2008 12:08 PM
Post #163436—in reply to #163433
Jacek K.
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RE: United States Presidential Election, 2008
The problem is, Raymond, that responding to the question "who do you think will win the upcoming US presidential election?" may have nothing to do with how one would vote himself. I believe I mentioned this before that I myself believe to have 'voted' here for McCain because last summer I still thought he would win. When filling out the absentee ballot later on, I obviously voted for someone else. No, not for Obama who I knew would carry my blue state so he didn't need my absentee vote, with everybody else around me voting for him. I often vote for independents, just to make a point, knowing that statistically my vote will not count. (Well, it did account for 5.56% on our 2008 Presidential Entry/Exit Poll for US citizens )
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Posted:
December 1, 2008 6:31 PM
Post #163463—in reply to #163436
Derek Thornton
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RE: United States Presidential Election, 2008

Originally written by Jacek Krankowski on December 1, 2008 5:08 PM
I believe I mentioned this before that I myself believe to have 'voted' here for McCain because last summer I still thought he would win.

And the forum poll was expressly open to non-US citizens so as one of the globally disenfranchized (I cannot legally vote in an election for any national government anywhere) and although I would dearly have liked to see our Sarah get in, even if only to annoy the rest of the US matriarchy, I selected Obama/Biden because they showed that they could run an efficient campaign whereas McCain would have had trouble running a Taco Bell at a profit.

Derek


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Posted:
December 2, 2008 5:46 AM
Post #163486—in reply to #161246
Jacek K.
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RE: America as Rome

Originally written by John Bunch on November 11, 2008 8:05 PM
In case you guys didn't get the memo: the U.S. has basically won in Iraq.

"I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess," Bush added.

When pressed by Gibson, Bush declined to "speculate" on whether he would still have gone to war if he knew Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction.

"That is a do-over that I can't do," Bush said.

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/story?id=6354012&page=1

* * *

Official figures showed that 296 civilians were killed in Iraq last month, 58 higher than in October, partly because of more bombings in Baghdad.

At the same time US military deaths continue to decrease with six US troops killed in November compared to 29 in the same month last year.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7758432.stm


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Posted:
December 2, 2008 11:39 AM
Post #163508—in reply to #162900
Bertha S. Deffenbaugh
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RE: OFF TOPIC posts

Originally written by John Bunch on November 24, 2008 9:03 PM

I have very mixed feelings about immigration, and I don't think that there is one "right" answer. I think it really depends who you are and what your interests are. For instance, if I own a restaurant in Texas or Arizona, I like immigration, even illegal immigration. If I am a policeman there, maybe not so much. 

Ask those citizens who get their SSN stolen and used by illegal immigrants. Ask the many workers who have lost their jobs because their employers preferred to fire them and save money using illegal immigrants instead. Ask Arizona hospitals which can barely function because they cannot refuse service to illegal immigrants. Ask the many Arizonans whose vehicles are stolen and taken down to Mexico to never be found. Ask Arizonans who have ended up in hospital after being rear-ended by illegal immigrants who didn’t know how to drive. [The list goes on and on]

 

 

Bertha 

 



[Edited by Bertha S. Deffenbaugh on December 2, 2008 11:45 AM]

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