Early voting in North Carolina started yesterday; it's one of 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) that allow voters to cast ballots in person ahead of time without providing election officials with a reason they can't be there on Election Day. Which means that as both presidential campaigns shift from registering voters to getting out the vote, the election has actually already started. As much as 30 percent of the votes cast this fall will probably come in before Nov. 4 (http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/17/early_vote/index.html?source=newsletter)

With some of the absentee ballots also safely in the mail, I am now tempted to start polling the actual U.S. voters who work as translators/interpreters. If you live overseas and have already mailed your ballot, or you have already cast you ballot in the early procedure mentioned above, or you are 100% sure for whom you are going to vote no matter what, or you are reading this when about to enter the polling station or after you have voted on November 4, please tell us your actual choice.

This poll is different from the international sentiment expressed in the United States Presidential Election, 2008 poll and the general international preferences expressed in the RE: US election 2008 poll, originally run four years ago, in that it is limited to U.S. citizens only.

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12448053&fsrc=nwl

Oct 17th 2008

SurveyUSA has been tracking early voters in states that permit voting before election day. The results so far show Mr Obama beating Mr McCain by larger margins among early-voters than is suggested by opinion polls in the same states. For example in Ohio opinion polls give Mr Obama a lead of a few percentage points, but among those who have already voted he has a lead of about 18 points. Early voting is not necessarily an accurate guide to the eventual result, as the most partisan are likely to vote early, with important swing voters deciding later. But, again, Mr Obama has reason to cheer. Older voters are also fond of casting their ballots early, and one might expect the elderly to lean in favour of the Republican candidate. So far, however, Mr Obama appears to be doing better.

Mr McCain can take some solace. The gap between candidates usually narrows nearer to polling day.

Do I have to show my passport in order to vote?

Nanna

http://www.866ourvote.org/elections-101?id=0004

Each state selects the form of ID it deems acceptable. In the least restrictive states, residents only need to have their signature verified.  Other states permit residents to provide either picture ID or non-picture ID, including utility bills.  In other states, residents are required to present picture ID.  If the resident is unable to provide the required pictured ID, the individual may still vote if they sign an affidavit attesting to their ID.  Finally, in the most restrictive states, individuals must present a government-issued photo ID and individuals unable to produce the required ID are not allowed to use an affidavit to attest to their ID and subsequently cannot vote. ...

Proof of citizenship and voter ID requirements impact all voters, but fall more significantly on traditionally disenfranchised groups like poor, minority and elderly voters. For example, a 2006 nationwide survey concluded that voting-age citizens earning less than $35,000 in annual income were more than twice as likely to lack government-issued ID as those earning more than $35,000.² Similarly, the same 2006 study found that African-Americans are more than three times as likely as Caucasians to lack a government-issued photo ID, with one in four African –Americans owning no such ID.³ Additionally, a study determined that 25% of registered voters in Georgia who are over the age 65 do not own a driver’s license or state ID card.⁴ These three traditionally disenfranchised groups share a common trait – lower access to motor vehicles and thus a greatly reduced need for a driver’s license or similar form of ID.

This is to thank the first 10 Earliest Birds who have voted and to now invite Early Birds to this poll.

Jacek

With as many as one-third of voters expected to cast their ballots before Election Day, preliminary data from several key battleground states show more Democrats than Republicans have voted early: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/22/america/22early.php?pass=true

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463210033356561.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Yet there was a curious anomaly: In most primaries Mr. Obama tended to
receive higher percentages in exit polls than he did from the voters.
What accounts for this discrepancy?

While there is no definitive answer, it's worth noting that only about
half of Americans approached to take the exit poll agree to do so
(compared to 90% in Mexico and Russia). Thus it seems likely that Obama
voters -- more enthusiastic about their candidate than Clinton voters by
most measures (like strength of support in poll questions) -- were more
willing to fill out the exit poll forms and drop them in the box.

What this suggests is that Mr. Obama will win about the same percentage
of votes as he gets in the last rounds of polling before the election.

Compare current TC results (I will announce them when the early voting closes in the US) to this poll: http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/la-votemap,0,6124938.htmlstory

Vote: Election 2008

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That will be on Sunday as Florida's Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has decided to extend early voting hours in his state (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/obama-camp-giddy-over-ear_n_138656.html)

Will Early Voting Skew Exit Polls?

No.

Recent research in neuroscience and psychology, however, suggests that most undecided voters may be smarter than you think. They’re not indifferent or unable to make clear comparisons between the candidates. They may be more willing than others to take their time — or else just unaware that they have essentially already made a choice: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28wang.html?em

Early vote is closing today in parts of the US so it’s time to make an announcement about TC US translators’ preferences.

First, by comparing United States Presidential Election, 2008 with US election 2004 I note a 38% increase of international interest in the US presidential election at TC.

Second, if we assume that the size of the TC international community interested in this topic is defined by the United States Presidential Election, 2008 poll, in which 76 votes have been cast so far, and we know that the US-based members account for 16% of the entire TC membership, as many as 17 votes cast in this poll here are quite a turnout. (I assume that everybody has identified themselves properly when coming to this TC polling station…)

Of all the US voters participating here, 12% abstained, which means an 88% voting turnout. Recalculating the automatic percentages so that the results refer only to those who have voted for a candidate, we get the following as at the end of the early voting in the US:

- John McCain: 20% 

- Barack Obama: 73%

- Third party/Independent: 7%

If you want to compare this to a vote based on larger numbers (although equally unscientific), a few posts above we find the following results: 

At this moment of the campaign, who will you vote for in the 2008 presidential election? 

John McCain (38490 responses)

    37.3%

 

Barack Obama (64774 responses)

          62.7%

103264 total responses (Results not scientific) 

This early vote at TC for US citizens continues until Tuesday when it will become an entry/exit poll for another day or two.

 

 

Current results

- John McCain: 19% 

- Barack Obama: 75%

- Third party/Independent: 6%

'I Would Make A Bad President,' Obama Says In Huge Campaign Blunder

(Otherwise, the voting results remain unchanged)

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9:03 a.m. Steven Spring of Charlotte, NC voted for Obama due to the fact that he could never support a candidate whose last name rhymes with "Hussein"

Well done!